New Zealand Mountan Safety Council

Tongariro

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Issued at 21/09/2017 10:20am. Valid till 22/09/2017 6pm

Tongariro

Mountain
Current avalanche advisory
High Alpine

Above 2000 meters

Alpine

1000 to 2000 meters

Sub Alpine

Below 1000 meters

Avalanche Danger Scale
Avalanche Danger Scale
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Primary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
2
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
The danger rating is MODERATE above 2000m for wind slab. Snowfall to continue throughout today however total accumulations will be moderate; however enough for low volume wind slab development. Expect wind slab formation on aspects with a Southerly and Easterly component. A falling freezing level couple with the nature of this fast moving front will create snowpack weaknesses. A high likelihood a weakness at the old new snow interface will develop.

Secondary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
1
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
We have a LOW danger rating for loose wet avalanche activity. This concern reflects the current weather and its direct impact to surface cohesion. All aspects below 1900m will be affected as rain is the catalyst creating a loss of surface structure. Watch for obvious signs of a weakening surface; such as deep boot / ski penetration. As freezing level falls rain will turn to snow and wet saturated snowpack will set up. If this scenario pans out this loose wet concern will be minimised to a degree becoming more aspect specific. Meaning solar aspects tomorrow morning during an expected clearing.

Tertiary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
1
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
A LOW danger rating is in place above 1800m for Cornice Fall on the highlighted aspects. Cornices above 2000m have been well established for some time. However these remain large and unsupported. Some of these cornices have gained a bit of size and mass over the past few days. The cornice may fail some distance from the edge. It is recommended you put a decent amount of distance from ridgelines with a South and East aspects where cornice has formed. Easy to do when visibility is good however in poor conditions you may inadvertently fine yourself applying weight and triggering a failure.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Recent Avalanche Activity
No natural avalanche activity reported or observed. Poor weather currently is limiting comprehensive observations.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Current Snowpack Conditions
Below 1900m snowpack has become rain saturated and Isothermal. No free flowing water observed as rain is of moderate intensity at present. Some low volume wind slab development occurring at present above 2000m. Cornice still present and weakening as rain adds weight to these unsupported structures partially at the lower elevations.

Mountain Weather

Mountain Weather
Strong Northerly’s today trending Westerly and becoming light. Showers throughout today with a clearing overnight. Freezing level lowers to 1800m before a rise to 2400m tomorrow as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. Some isolated showers may develop late tomorrow afternoon going into the evening.


MetService
For more information go to: http://www.metservice.com/mountain/index

Sliding Danger

Slide For Life
Icy conditions can be found on wind scoured exposed slopes and ridge lines. Recommend carrying an ice axe and crampons.

Forecast by Richard Te Ua

Avalanche Forecast Regions:
Mountain Safety Council managed websites
Mountainf Safety Council websiteAdventure Smart websiteNew Zealand Avalanche Center